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Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (5199.KL)


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In light of the recent fall in oil prices due to the Saudi-Russian dispute and dampening demand for oil due to the lockdowns implemented globally, O&G stocks have taken a severe beating, falling approximately 50% from their highs at the beginning of the year. Not spared from this onslaught is Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (Hibiscus), a listed oil and gas (O&G) exploration and production (E&P) company.
Why invest in O&G stocks in this particularly uncertain period? For one, valuations of these stocks have fallen to multi-year lows, bringing the potential ROI on these stocks to attractive levels. Oil prices are cyclical, and are bound to return to the mean given a sufficiently long time horizon. The trick is to find those companies who can survive through this downturn and emerge into “normal” profitability once oil prices rebound.
In this article, I will explore the upsides and downsides of investing in Hibiscus. I will do my best to cater this report to newcomers to the O&G industry – rather than address exclusively experts and veterans of the O&G sector. As an equity analyst, I aim to provide a view on the company primarily, and will generally refrain from providing macro views on oil or opinions about secular trends of the sector. I hope you enjoy reading it!
Stock code: 5199.KL
Stock name: Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad
Financial information and financial reports: https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=5199
Company website: https://www.hibiscuspetroleum.com/

Company Snapshot

Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (5199.KL) is an oil and gas (O&G) upstream exploration and production (E&P) company located in Malaysia. As an E&P company, their business can be basically described as:
· looking for oil,
· drawing it out of the ground, and
· selling it on global oil markets.
This means Hibiscus’s profits are particularly exposed to fluctuating oil prices. With oil prices falling to sub-$30 from about $60 at the beginning of the year, Hibiscus’s stock price has also fallen by about 50% YTD – from around RM 1.00 to RM 0.45 (as of 5 April 2020).
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While the company is domiciled in Malaysia, its two main oil producing fields are located in both Malaysia and the UK. The Malaysian oil field is commonly referred to as the North Sabah field, while the UK oil field is commonly referred to as the Anasuria oil field. Hibiscus has licenses to other oil fields in different parts of the world, notably the Marigold/Sunflower oil fields in the UK and the VIC cluster in Australia, but its revenues and profits mainly stem from the former two oil producing fields.
Given that it’s a small player and has only two primary producing oil fields, it’s not surprising that Hibiscus sells its oil to a concentrated pool of customers, with 2 of them representing 80% of its revenues (i.e. Petronas and BP). Fortunately, both these customers are oil supermajors, and are unlikely to default on their obligations despite low oil prices.
At RM 0.45 per share, the market capitalization is RM 714.7m and it has a trailing PE ratio of about 5x. It doesn’t carry any debt, and it hasn’t paid a dividend in its listing history. The MD, Mr. Kenneth Gerard Pereira, owns about 10% of the company’s outstanding shares.

Reserves (Total recoverable oil) & Production (bbl/day)

To begin analyzing the company, it’s necessary to understand a little of the industry jargon. We’ll start with Reserves and Production.
In general, there are three types of categories for a company’s recoverable oil volumes – Reserves, Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources. Reserves are those oil fields which are “commercial”, which is defined as below:
As defined by the SPE PRMS, Reserves are “… quantities of petroleum anticipated to be commercially recoverable by application of development projects to known accumulations from a given date forward under defined conditions.” Therefore, Reserves must be discovered (by drilling, recoverable (with current technology), remaining in the subsurface (at the effective date of the evaluation) and “commercial” based on the development project proposed.)
Note that Reserves are associated with development projects. To be considered as “commercial”, there must be a firm intention to proceed with the project in a reasonable time frame (typically 5 years, and such intention must be based upon all of the following criteria:)
- A reasonable assessment of the future economics of the development project meeting defined investment and operating criteria; - A reasonable expectation that there will be a market for all or at least the expected sales quantities of production required to justify development; - Evidence that the necessary production and transportation facilities are available or can be made available; and - Evidence that legal, contractual, environmental and other social and economic concerns will allow for the actual implementation of the recovery project being evaluated.
Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources are further defined as below:
- Contingent Resources: potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets discovered volumes but is not (yet commercial (as defined above); and) - Prospective Resources: potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets as yet undiscovered volumes.
In the industry lingo, we generally refer to Reserves as ‘P’ and Contingent Resources as ‘C’. These ‘P’ and ‘C’ resources can be further categorized into 1P/2P/3P resources and 1C/2C/3C resources, each referring to a low/medium/high estimate of the company’s potential recoverable oil volumes:
- Low/1C/1P estimate: there should be reasonable certainty that volumes actually recovered will equal or exceed the estimate; - Best/2C/2P estimate: there should be an equal likelihood of the actual volumes of petroleum being larger or smaller than the estimate; and - High/3C/3P estimate: there is a low probability that the estimate will be exceeded.
Hence in the E&P industry, it is easy to see why most investors and analysts refer to the 2P estimate as the best estimate for a company’s actual recoverable oil volumes. This is because 2P reserves (‘2P’ referring to ‘Proved and Probable’) are a middle estimate of the recoverable oil volumes legally recognized as “commercial”.
However, there’s nothing stopping you from including 2C resources (riskier) or utilizing 1P resources (conservative) as your estimate for total recoverable oil volumes, depending on your risk appetite. In this instance, the company has provided a snapshot of its 2P and 2C resources in its analyst presentation:
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Basically, what the company is saying here is that by 2021, it will have classified as 2P reserves at least 23.7 million bbl from its Anasuria field and 20.5 million bbl from its North Sabah field – for total 2P reserves of 44.2 million bbl (we are ignoring the Australian VIC cluster as it is only estimated to reach first oil by 2022).
Furthermore, the company is stating that they have discovered (but not yet legally classified as “commercial”) a further 71 million bbl of oil from both the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, as well as the Marigold/Sunflower fields. If we include these 2C resources, the total potential recoverable oil volumes could exceed 100 million bbl.
In this report, we shall explore all valuation scenarios giving consideration to both 2P and 2C resources.
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The company further targets a 2021 production rate of 20,000 bbl (LTM: 8,000 bbl), which includes 5,000 bbl from its Anasuria field (LTM: 2,500 bbl) and 7,000 bbl from its North Sabah field (LTM: 5,300 bbl).
This is a substantial increase in forecasted production from both existing and prospective oil fields. If it materializes, annual production rate could be as high as 7,300 mmbbl, and 2021 revenues (given FY20 USD/bbl of $60) could exceed RM 1.5 billion (FY20: RM 988 million).
However, this targeted forecast is quite a stretch from current production levels. Nevertheless, we shall consider all provided information in estimating a valuation for Hibiscus.
To understand Hibiscus’s oil production capacity and forecast its revenues and profits, we need to have a better appreciation of the performance of its two main cash-generating assets – the North Sabah field and the Anasuria field.

North Sabah oil field
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Hibiscus owns a 50% interest in the North Sabah field together with its partner Petronas, and has production rights over the field up to year 2040. The asset contains 4 oil fields, namely the St Joseph field, South Furious field, SF 30 field and Barton field.
For the sake of brevity, we shall not delve deep into the operational aspects of the fields or the contractual nature of its production sharing contract (PSC). We’ll just focus on the factors which relate to its financial performance. These are:
· Average uptime
· Total oil sold
· Average realized oil price
· Average OPEX per bbl
With regards to average uptime, we can see that the company maintains relative high facility availability, exceeding 90% uptime in all quarters of the LTM with exception of Jul-Sep 2019. The dip in average uptime was due to production enhancement projects and maintenance activities undertaken to improve the production capacity of the St Joseph and SF30 oil fields.
Hence, we can conclude that management has a good handle on operational performance. It also implies that there is little room for further improvement in production resulting from increased uptime.
As North Sabah is under a production sharing contract (PSC), there is a distinction between gross oil production and net oil production. The former relates to total oil drawn out of the ground, whereas the latter refers to Hibiscus’s share of oil production after taxes, royalties and expenses are accounted for. In this case, we want to pay attention to net oil production, not gross.
We can arrive at Hibiscus’s total oil sold for the last twelve months (LTM) by adding up the total oil sold for each of the last 4 quarters. Summing up the figures yields total oil sold for the LTM of approximately 2,075,305 bbl.
Then, we can arrive at an average realized oil price over the LTM by averaging the average realized oil price for the last 4 quarters, giving us an average realized oil price over the LTM of USD 68.57/bbl. We can do the same for average OPEX per bbl, giving us an average OPEX per bbl over the LTM of USD 13.23/bbl.
Thus, we can sum up the above financial performance of the North Sabah field with the following figures:
· Total oil sold: 2,075,305 bbl
· Average realized oil price: USD 68.57/bbl
· Average OPEX per bbl: USD 13.23/bbl

Anasuria oil field
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Doing the same exercise as above for the Anasuria field, we arrive at the following financial performance for the Anasuria field:
· Total oil sold: 1,073,304 bbl
· Average realized oil price: USD 63.57/bbl
· Average OPEX per bbl: USD 23.22/bbl
As gas production is relatively immaterial, and to be conservative, we shall only consider the crude oil production from the Anasuria field in forecasting revenues.

Valuation (Method 1)

Putting the figures from both oil fields together, we get the following data:
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Given that we have determined LTM EBITDA of RM 632m, the next step would be to subtract ITDA (interest, tax, depreciation & amortization) from it to obtain estimated LTM Net Profit. Using FY2020’s ITDA of approximately RM 318m as a guideline, we arrive at an estimated LTM Net Profit of RM 314m (FY20: 230m). Given the current market capitalization of RM 714.7m, this implies a trailing LTM PE of 2.3x.
Performing a sensitivity analysis given different oil prices, we arrive at the following net profit table for the company under different oil price scenarios, assuming oil production rate and ITDA remain constant:
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From the above exercise, it becomes apparent that Hibiscus has a breakeven oil price of about USD 41.8863/bbl, and has a lot of operating leverage given the exponential rate of increase in its Net Profit with each consequent increase in oil prices.
Considering that the oil production rate (EBITDA) is likely to increase faster than ITDA’s proportion to revenues (fixed costs), at an implied PE of 4.33x, it seems likely that an investment in Hibiscus will be profitable over the next 10 years (with the assumption that oil prices will revert to the mean in the long-term).

Valuation (Method 2)

Of course, there are a lot of assumptions behind the above method of valuation. Hence, it would be prudent to perform multiple methods of valuation and compare the figures to one another.
As opposed to the profit/loss assessment in Valuation (Method 1), another way of performing a valuation would be to estimate its balance sheet value, i.e. total revenues from 2P Reserves, and assign a reasonable margin to it.
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From the above, we understand that Hibiscus’s 2P reserves from the North Sabah and Anasuria fields alone are approximately 44.2 mmbbl (we ignore contribution from Australia’s VIC cluster as it hasn’t been developed yet).
Doing a similar sensitivity analysis of different oil prices as above, we arrive at the following estimated total revenues and accumulated net profit:
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Let’s assume that the above average of RM 9.68 billion in total realizable revenues from current 2P reserves holds true. If we assign a conservative Net Profit margin of 15% (FY20: 23%; past 5 years average: 16%), we arrive at estimated accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves of RM 1.452 billion. Given the current market capitalization of RM 714 million, we might be able to say that the equity is worth about twice the current share price.
However, it is understandable that some readers might feel that the figures used in the above estimate (e.g. net profit margin of 15%) were randomly plucked from the sky. So how do we reconcile them with figures from the financial statements? Fortunately, there appears to be a way to do just that.
Intangible Assets
I refer you to a figure in the financial statements which provides a shortcut to the valuation of 2P Reserves. This is the carrying value of Intangible Assets on the Balance Sheet.
As of 2QFY21, that amount was RM 1,468,860,000 (i.e. RM 1.468 billion).
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Quite coincidentally, one might observe that this figure is dangerously close to the estimated accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves of RM 1.452 billion we calculated earlier. But why would this amount matter at all?
To answer that, I refer you to the notes of the Annual Report FY20 (AR20). On page 148 of the AR20, we find the following two paragraphs:
E&E assets comprise of rights and concession and conventional studies. Following the acquisition of a concession right to explore a licensed area, the costs incurred such as geological and geophysical surveys, drilling, commercial appraisal costs and other directly attributable costs of exploration and appraisal including technical and administrative costs, are capitalised as conventional studies, presented as intangible assets.
E&E assets are assessed for impairment when facts and circumstances suggest that the carrying amount of an E&E asset may exceed its recoverable amount. The Group will allocate E&E assets to cash generating unit (“CGU”s or groups of CGUs for the purpose of assessing such assets for impairment. Each CGU or group of units to which an E&E asset is allocated will not be larger than an operating segment as disclosed in Note 39 to the financial statements.)
Hence, we can determine that firstly, the intangible asset value represents capitalized costs of acquisition of the oil fields, including technical exploration costs and costs of acquiring the relevant licenses. Secondly, an impairment review will be carried out when “the carrying amount of an E&E asset may exceed its recoverable amount”, with E&E assets being allocated to “cash generating units” (CGU) for the purposes of assessment.
On page 169 of the AR20, we find the following:
Carrying amounts of the Group’s intangible assets, oil and gas assets and FPSO are reviewed for possible impairment annually including any indicators of impairment. For the purpose of assessing impairment, assets are grouped at the lowest level CGUs for which there is a separately identifiable cash flow available. These CGUs are based on operating areas, represented by the 2011 North Sabah EOR PSC (“North Sabah”, the Anasuria Cluster, the Marigold and Sunflower fields, the VIC/P57 exploration permit (“VIC/P57”) and the VIC/L31 production license (“VIC/L31”).)
So apparently, the CGUs that have been assigned refer to the respective oil producing fields, two of which include the North Sabah field and the Anasuria field. In order to perform the impairment review, estimates of future cash flow will be made by management to assess the “recoverable amount” (as described above), subject to assumptions and an appropriate discount rate.
Hence, what we can gather up to now is that management will estimate future recoverable cash flows from a CGU (i.e. the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields), compare that to their carrying value, and perform an impairment if their future recoverable cash flows are less than their carrying value. In other words, if estimated accumulated profits from the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields are less than their carrying value, an impairment is required.
So where do we find the carrying values for the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields? Further down on page 184 in the AR20, we see the following:
Included in rights and concession are the carrying amounts of producing field licenses in the Anasuria Cluster amounting to RM668,211,518 (2018: RM687,664,530, producing field licenses in North Sabah amounting to RM471,031,008 (2018: RM414,333,116))
Hence, we can determine that the carrying values for the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields are RM 471m and RM 668m respectively. But where do we find the future recoverable cash flows of the fields as estimated by management, and what are the assumptions used in that calculation?
Fortunately, we find just that on page 185:
17 INTANGIBLE ASSETS (CONTINUED)
(a Anasuria Cluster)
The Directors have concluded that there is no impairment indicator for Anasuria Cluster during the current financial year. In the previous financial year, due to uncertainties in crude oil prices, the Group has assessed the recoverable amount of the intangible assets, oil and gas assets and FPSO relating to the Anasuria Cluster. The recoverable amount is determined using the FVLCTS model based on discounted cash flows (“DCF” derived from the expected cash in/outflow pattern over the production lives.)
The key assumptions used to determine the recoverable amount for the Anasuria Cluster were as follows:
(i Discount rate of 10%;)
(ii Future cost inflation factor of 2% per annum;)
(iii Oil price forecast based on the oil price forward curve from independent parties; and,)
(iv Oil production profile based on the assessment by independent oil and gas reserve experts.)
Based on the assessments performed, the Directors concluded that the recoverable amount calculated based on the valuation model is higher than the carrying amount.
(b North Sabah)
The acquisition of the North Sabah assets was completed in the previous financial year. Details of the acquisition are as disclosed in Note 15 to the financial statements.
The Directors have concluded that there is no impairment indicator for North Sabah during the current financial year.
Here, we can see that the recoverable amount of the Anasuria field was estimated based on a DCF of expected future cash flows over the production life of the asset. The key assumptions used by management all seem appropriate, including a discount rate of 10% and oil price and oil production estimates based on independent assessment. From there, management concludes that the recoverable amount of the Anasuria field is higher than its carrying amount (i.e. no impairment required). Likewise, for the North Sabah field.
How do we interpret this? Basically, what management is saying is that given a 10% discount rate and independent oil price and oil production estimates, the accumulated profits (i.e. recoverable amount) from both the North Sabah and the Anasuria fields exceed their carrying amounts of RM 471m and RM 668m respectively.
In other words, according to management’s own estimates, the carrying value of the Intangible Assets of RM 1.468 billion approximates the accumulated Net Profit recoverable from 2P reserves.
To conclude Valuation (Method 2), we arrive at the following:

Our estimates Management estimates
Accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves RM 1.452 billion RM 1.468 billion

Financials

By now, we have established the basic economics of Hibiscus’s business, including its revenues (i.e. oil production and oil price scenarios), costs (OPEX, ITDA), profitability (breakeven, future earnings potential) and balance sheet value (2P reserves, valuation). Moving on, we want to gain a deeper understanding of the 3 statements to anticipate any blind spots and risks. We’ll refer to the financial statements of both the FY20 annual report and the 2Q21 quarterly report in this analysis.
For the sake of brevity, I’ll only point out those line items which need extra attention, and skip over the rest. Feel free to go through the financial statements on your own to gain a better familiarity of the business.
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Income Statement
First, we’ll start with the Income Statement on page 135 of the AR20. Revenues are straightforward, as we’ve discussed above. Cost of Sales and Administrative Expenses fall under the jurisdiction of OPEX, which we’ve also seen earlier. Other Expenses are mostly made up of Depreciation & Amortization of RM 115m.
Finance Costs are where things start to get tricky. Why does a company which carries no debt have such huge amounts of finance costs? The reason can be found in Note 8, where it is revealed that the bulk of finance costs relate to the unwinding of discount of provision for decommissioning costs of RM 25m (Note 32).
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This actually refers to the expected future costs of restoring the Anasuria and North Sabah fields to their original condition once the oil reserves have been depleted. Accounting standards require the company to provide for these decommissioning costs as they are estimable and probable. The way the decommissioning costs are accounted for is the same as an amortized loan, where the initial carrying value is recognized as a liability and the discount rate applied is reversed each year as an expense on the Income Statement. However, these expenses are largely non-cash in nature and do not necessitate a cash outflow every year (FY20: RM 69m).
Unwinding of discount on non-current other payables of RM 12m relate to contractual payments to the North Sabah sellers. We will discuss it later.
Taxation is another tricky subject, and is even more significant than Finance Costs at RM 161m. In gist, Hibiscus is subject to the 38% PITA (Petroleum Income Tax Act) under Malaysian jurisdiction, and the 30% Petroleum tax + 10% Supplementary tax under UK jurisdiction. Of the RM 161m, RM 41m of it relates to deferred tax which originates from the difference between tax treatment and accounting treatment on capitalized assets (accelerated depreciation vs straight-line depreciation). Nonetheless, what you should take away from this is that the tax expense is a tangible expense and material to breakeven analysis.
Fortunately, tax is a variable expense, and should not materially impact the cash flow of Hibiscus in today’s low oil price environment.
Note: Cash outflows for Tax Paid in FY20 was RM 97m, substantially below the RM 161m tax expense.
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Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of Hibiscus is unexciting; I’ll just bring your attention to those line items which need additional scrutiny. I’ll use the figures in the latest 2Q21 quarterly report (2Q21) and refer to the notes in AR20 for clarity.
We’ve already discussed Intangible Assets in the section above, so I won’t dwell on it again.
Moving on, the company has Equipment of RM 582m, largely relating to O&G assets (e.g. the Anasuria FPSO vessel and CAPEX incurred on production enhancement projects). Restricted cash and bank balances represent contractual obligations for decommissioning costs of the Anasuria Cluster, and are inaccessible for use in operations.
Inventories are relatively low, despite Hibiscus being an E&P company, so forex fluctuations on carrying value of inventories are relatively immaterial. Trade receivables largely relate to entitlements from Petronas and BP (both oil supermajors), and are hence quite safe from impairment. Other receivables, deposits and prepayments are significant as they relate to security deposits placed with sellers of the oil fields acquired; these should be ignored for cash flow purposes.
Note: Total cash and bank balances do not include approximately RM 105 m proceeds from the North Sabah December 2019 offtake (which was received in January 2020)
Cash and bank balances of RM 90m do not include RM 105m of proceeds from offtake received in 3Q21 (Jan 2020). Hence, the actual cash and bank balances as of 2Q21 approximate RM 200m.
Liabilities are a little more interesting. First, I’ll draw your attention to the significant Deferred tax liabilities of RM 457m. These largely relate to the amortization of CAPEX (i.e. Equipment and capitalized E&E expenses), which is given an accelerated depreciation treatment for tax purposes.
The way this works is that the government gives Hibiscus a favorable tax treatment on capital expenditures incurred via an accelerated depreciation schedule, so that the taxable income is less than usual. However, this leads to the taxable depreciation being utilized quicker than accounting depreciation, hence the tax payable merely deferred to a later period – when the tax depreciation runs out but accounting depreciation remains. Given the capital intensive nature of the business, it is understandable why Deferred tax liabilities are so large.
We’ve discussed Provision for decommissioning costs under the Finance Costs section earlier. They are also quite significant at RM 266m.
Notably, the Other Payables and Accruals are a hefty RM 431m. What do they relate to? Basically, they are contractual obligations to the sellers of the oil fields which are only payable upon oil prices reaching certain thresholds. Hence, while they are current in nature, they will only become payable when oil prices recover to previous highs, and are hence not an immediate cash outflow concern given today’s low oil prices.
Cash Flow Statement
There is nothing in the cash flow statement which warrants concern.
Notably, the company generated OCF of approximately RM 500m in FY20 and RM 116m in 2Q21. It further incurred RM 330m and RM 234m of CAPEX in FY20 and 2Q21 respectively, largely owing to production enhancement projects to increase the production rate of the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, which according to management estimates are accretive to ROI.
Tax paid was RM 97m in FY20 and RM 61m in 2Q21 (tax expense: RM 161m and RM 62m respectively).

Risks

There are a few obvious and not-so-obvious risks that one should be aware of before investing in Hibiscus. We shall not consider operational risks (e.g. uptime, OPEX) as they are outside the jurisdiction of the equity analyst. Instead, we shall focus on the financial and strategic risks largely outside the control of management. The main ones are:
· Oil prices remaining subdued for long periods of time
· Fluctuation of exchange rates
· Customer concentration risk
· 2P Reserves being less than estimated
· Significant current and non-current liabilities
· Potential issuance of equity
Oil prices remaining subdued
Of topmost concern in the minds of most analysts is whether Hibiscus has the wherewithal to sustain itself through this period of low oil prices (sub-$30). A quick and dirty estimate of annual cash outflow (i.e. burn rate) assuming a $20 oil world and historical production rates is between RM 50m-70m per year, which considering the RM 200m cash balance implies about 3-4 years of sustainability before the company runs out of cash and has to rely on external assistance for financing.
Table 1: Hibiscus EBITDA at different oil price and exchange rates
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The above table shows different EBITDA scenarios (RM ‘m) given different oil prices (left column) and USD:MYR exchange rates (top row). Currently, oil prices are $27 and USD:MYR is 1:4.36.
Given conservative assumptions of average OPEX/bbl of $20 (current: $15), we can safely say that the company will be loss-making as long as oil remains at $20 or below (red). However, we can see that once oil prices hit $25, the company can tank the lower-end estimate of the annual burn rate of RM 50m (orange), while at RM $27 it can sufficiently muddle through the higher-end estimate of the annual burn rate of RM 70m (green).
Hence, we can assume that as long as the average oil price over the next 3-4 years remains above $25, Hibiscus should come out of this fine without the need for any external financing.
Customer Concentration Risk
With regards to customer concentration risk, there is not much the analyst or investor can do except to accept the risk. Fortunately, 80% of revenues can be attributed to two oil supermajors (Petronas and BP), hence the risk of default on contractual obligations and trade receivables seems to be quite diminished.
2P Reserves being less than estimated
2P Reserves being less than estimated is another risk that one should keep in mind. Fortunately, the current market cap is merely RM 714m – at half of estimated recoverable amounts of RM 1.468 billion – so there’s a decent margin of safety. In addition, there are other mitigating factors which shall be discussed in the next section (‘Opportunities’).
Significant non-current and current liabilities
The significant non-current and current liabilities have been addressed in the previous section. It has been determined that they pose no threat to immediate cash flow due to them being long-term in nature (e.g. decommissioning costs, deferred tax, etc). Hence, for the purpose of assessing going concern, their amounts should not be a cause for concern.
Potential issuance of equity
Finally, we come to the possibility of external financing being required in this low oil price environment. While the company should last 3-4 years on existing cash reserves, there is always the risk of other black swan events materializing (e.g. coronavirus) or simply oil prices remaining muted for longer than 4 years.
Furthermore, management has hinted that they wish to acquire new oil assets at presently depressed prices to increase daily production rate to a targeted 20,000 bbl by end-2021. They have room to acquire debt, but they may also wish to issue equity for this purpose. Hence, the possibility of dilution to existing shareholders cannot be entirely ruled out.
However, given management’s historical track record of prioritizing ROI and optimal capital allocation, and in consideration of the fact that the MD owns 10% of outstanding shares, there is some assurance that any potential acquisitions will be accretive to EPS and therefore valuations.

Opportunities

As with the existence of risk, the presence of material opportunities also looms over the company. Some of them are discussed below:
· Increased Daily Oil Production Rate
· Inclusion of 2C Resources
· Future oil prices exceeding $50 and effects from coronavirus dissipating
Increased Daily Oil Production Rate
The first and most obvious opportunity is the potential for increased production rate. We’ve seen in the last quarter (2Q21) that the North Sabah field increased its daily production rate by approximately 20% as a result of production enhancement projects (infill drilling), lowering OPEX/bbl as a result. To vastly oversimplify, infill drilling is the process of maximizing well density by drilling in the spaces between existing wells to improve oil production.
The same improvements are being undertaken at the Anasuria field via infill drilling, subsea debottlenecking, water injection and sidetracking of existing wells. Without boring you with industry jargon, this basically means future production rate is likely to improve going forward.
By how much can the oil production rate be improved by? Management estimates in their analyst presentation that enhancements in the Anasuria field will be able to yield 5,000 bbl/day by 2021 (current: 2,500 bbl/day).
Similarly, improvements in the North Sabah field is expected to yield 7,000 bbl/day by 2021 (current: 5,300 bbl/day).
This implies a total 2021 expected daily production rate from the two fields alone of 12,000 bbl/day (current: 8,000 bbl/day). That’s a 50% increase in yields which we haven’t factored into our valuation yet.
Furthermore, we haven’t considered any production from existing 2C resources (e.g. Marigold/Sunflower) or any potential acquisitions which may occur in the future. By management estimates, this can potentially increase production by another 8,000 bbl/day, bringing total production to 20,000 bbl/day.
While this seems like a stretch of the imagination, it pays to keep them in mind when forecasting future revenues and valuations.
Just to play around with the numbers, I’ve come up with a sensitivity analysis of possible annual EBITDA at different oil prices and daily oil production rates:
Table 2: Hibiscus EBITDA at different oil price and daily oil production rates
https://preview.redd.it/jnpfhr5n9br41.png?width=814&format=png&auto=webp&s=bbe4b512bc17f576d87529651140cc74cde3d159
The left column represents different oil prices while the top row represents different daily oil production rates.
The green column represents EBITDA at current daily production rate of 8,000 bbl/day; the orange column represents EBITDA at targeted daily production rate of 12,000 bbl/day; while the purple column represents EBITDA at maximum daily production rate of 20,000 bbl/day.
Even conservatively assuming increased estimated annual ITDA of RM 500m (FY20: RM 318m), and long-term average oil prices of $50 (FY20: $60), the estimated Net Profit and P/E ratio is potentially lucrative at daily oil production rates of 12,000 bbl/day and above.
2C Resources
Since we’re on the topic of improved daily oil production rate, it bears to pay in mind the relatively enormous potential from Hibiscus’s 2C Resources. North Sabah’s 2C Resources alone exceed 30 mmbbl; while those from the yet undiagnosed Marigold/Sunflower fields also reach 30 mmbbl. Altogether, 2C Resources exceed 70 mmbbl, which dwarfs the 44 mmbbl of 2P Reserves we have considered up to this point in our valuation estimates.
To refresh your memory, 2C Resources represents oil volumes which have been discovered but are not yet classified as “commercial”. This means that there is reasonable certainty of the oil being recoverable, as opposed to simply being in the very early stages of exploration. So, to be conservative, we will imagine that only 50% of 2C Resources are eligible for reclassification to 2P reserves, i.e. 35 mmbbl of oil.
https://preview.redd.it/mto11iz7abr41.png?width=375&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9028ab0816b3d3e25067447f2c70acd3ebfc41a
This additional 35 mmbbl of oil represents an 80% increase to existing 2P reserves. Assuming the daily oil production rate increases similarly by 80%, we will arrive at 14,400 bbl/day of oil production. According to Table 2 above, this would yield an EBITDA of roughly RM 630m assuming $50 oil.
Comparing that estimated EBITDA to FY20’s actual EBITDA:
FY20 FY21 (incl. 2C) Difference
Daily oil production (bbl/day) 8,626 14,400 +66%
Average oil price (USD/bbl) $68.57 $50 -27%
Average OPEX/bbl (USD) $16.64 $20 +20%
EBITDA (RM ‘m) 632 630 -
Hence, even conservatively assuming lower oil prices and higher OPEX/bbl (which should decrease in the presence of higher oil volumes) than last year, we get approximately the same EBITDA as FY20.
For the sake of completeness, let’s assume that Hibiscus issues twice the no. of existing shares over the next 10 years, effectively diluting shareholders by 50%. Even without accounting for the possibility of the acquisition of new oil fields, at the current market capitalization of RM 714m, the prospective P/E would be about 10x. Not too shabby.
Future oil prices exceeding $50 and effects from coronavirus dissipating
Hibiscus shares have recently been hit by a one-two punch from oil prices cratering from $60 to $30, as a result of both the Saudi-Russian dispute and depressed demand for oil due to coronavirus. This has massively increased supply and at the same time hugely depressed demand for oil (due to the globally coordinated lockdowns being implemented).
Given a long enough timeframe, I fully expect OPEC+ to come to an agreement and the economic effects from the coronavirus to dissipate, allowing oil prices to rebound. As we equity investors are aware, oil prices are cyclical and are bound to recover over the next 10 years.
When it does, valuations of O&G stocks (including Hibiscus’s) are likely to improve as investors overshoot expectations and begin to forecast higher oil prices into perpetuity, as they always tend to do in good times. When that time arrives, Hibiscus’s valuations are likely to become overoptimistic as all O&G stocks tend to do during oil upcycles, resulting in valuations far exceeding reasonable estimates of future earnings. If you can hold the shares up until then, it’s likely you will make much more on your investment than what we’ve been estimating.

Conclusion

Wrapping up what we’ve discussed so far, we can conclude that Hibiscus’s market capitalization of RM 714m far undershoots reasonable estimates of fair value even under conservative assumptions of recoverable oil volumes and long-term average oil prices. As a value investor, I hesitate to assign a target share price, but it’s safe to say that this stock is worth at least RM 1.00 (current: RM 0.45). Risk is relatively contained and the upside far exceeds the downside. While I have no opinion on the short-term trajectory of oil prices, I can safely recommend this stock as a long-term Buy based on fundamental research.
submitted by investorinvestor to SecurityAnalysis [link] [comments]

How does my churn plan sound?

Brand new to this but I don't forsee needing big credit (e.g., loan, mortgage) anytime soon so I figured this is the best time to churn if I'm going to do it.
My goal is to accumulate enough points to fund long-haul airfare and I guess hotels for the next two years or so. My family also does some US travel but I know Aeroplan is better for long haul. I have some Air Miles I can use for short haul for the time being.
I can also leverage my parents. They have really low value credit cards, other than a PC Mastercard which I should probably try to upgrade to a World Elite since we shop at a lot of Loblaws banners and gas up at Esso (3% return. vs 1% on non-World Elite). Is it better to refer them to cards or to get them supplementary cards to save on the annual fee?
How does this plan sound?
Currently own:
BMO SPC Air Miles Mastercard - My first credit card so I'll keep it open. Currently only using it at places that don't accept AMEX.
AMEX SimplyCash - Currently on the introductory offer (5% cash back on certain categories). I try to use this everywhere that accepts AMEX since the insurance, etc. is better than my other card.
Currently applying for:
Chase Mariott Visa - Already applied for this since I've read that it's best to go for this first. Will use as my main card for forex transactions. Not sure yet but I may cancel before the annual fee kicks in and get the Rogers Platinum Mastercard since I have Rogers services (waives the annual fee). If I don't get approved I'll get the Rogers MC. [30k Mariott -> 10k SPG]
AMEX Business Platinum - I'm doing some travel over the next couple of months so I could use the lounges. There's a chance I'll be doing significant travel throughout the next year or two - if I do I'll probably keep this card, if not I'll cancel before the annual fee kicks in. [75k AMEX -> Aeroplan]
Plan on getting:
AMEX Personal Gold - Self-refer (I can do this from Biz Plat, right?) and will use as my primary if I cancel the Business Platinum. [25k + 5k AMEX -> 30k Aeroplan]
AMEX Business Gold - Self-refer, churn, then cancel. [30k + 10k AMEX -> 40k Aeroplan)
AMEX Personal SPG - Churn then cancel. [20k + 10k SPG]
AMEX Business SPG - Self-refer, churn, then cancel. [20k + 10k SPG]

Total = 70k SPG + 145k Aeroplan (plus regular points from purchases)
Am I calculating referral bonuses correctly? And any other cards I should consider?
submitted by fazon to churningcanada [link] [comments]

PAUL, JIM AND ROY Q&A 26 JULY 2018

PAUL, JIM AND ROY Q&A 26 JULY 2018
https://preview.redd.it/8t2d8ujwzgc11.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cd13c50961d8839b7553a489743ea3c8d478306d
Dear members,
Here is a summary in Q&A format for the impromptu session Paul, Jim and Roy did in an unofficial trade.io supporters group on 26 July 2018 which should allay most if not all fears and questions.
Compliance & Documents Needed For Withdrawals:
First and foremost, we're not fortune tellers, but from our experience with other regulated companies in similar asset classes to crypto, like FX, CFD's, etc. regulation is coming and in many places already here as we've all seen.
We're choosing to get out in front of this, so that when it does happen and the companies that are being completely negligent in their compliance and regulatory duties are getting pinched, we're in a good position. With that said, though, we need to be cognizant of competition and not be too strict so that we can't compete with the cowboy exchanges in the near term.
With that said, let's tackle the KYC issue upon withdrawal first.
The process for withdrawals is very simple, and currently there is no tiered structure...meaning its the same process regardless if you want to withdrawal 1 satoshi or 1K BTC. This is in place for many reasons, as it will be easier to start onboarding clients once our fiat to crypto module is in place, and also grandfathering people into the LP.
When withdrawing you'll need to fill out Form A if you are an individual, and Form A is simply saying the info you're providing is true and accurate and you're not a US citizen. Very standard.
Then you provide an ID and Proof of Residence.
NOTHING needs to be certified and NOTHING needs to be translated to English, as we have a fully staffed multilingual compliance department. Apologies if the instructions were confusing, as we're in the process of making some tweaks to make it less confusing.
KYC/Withdrawal process is the minimum possible but still following regulatory guidelines.
Q: R documents provided confidential ?
A: 100% and securely stored.
Q : Restricted countries?
A : Only countries that are restricted are OFAC countries and the dangerous country known as the US.
Q: also i wanted to confirm, as u have already partnered with selfkey , will there be a personal wallet for each user at your end??? or a combine wallet ?? will there be any fee the e walllet service
A: Selfkey won't take place for some time, so put that to the side for now.
Q : So maybe you shall delete current FAQ in profile section? Simply because it's too scary for all.
A : We'll def beef it up to make it much clearer.
Q: Before moving, Any different form for companies withdrawing ? And kyc
A: Yes, good point, company withdrawals have a diff set of docs, that can be found within the guidelines, But still to my knowledge, company docs need not be certified or translated to English either.
Q : Any different form for companies withdrawing ?
A : Yes, good point, company withdrawals have a diff set of docs, that can be found within the guidelines
But still to my knowledge, company docs need not be certified or translated to English either.
Q : TIO price
A : For better or worse, we all keep an eye on price of TIO. The employees and staff have TIO just like the TIOnauts....so we all have the same interests here.
With that in mind, please remember there are nearly 90M TIO in circulation. The volume today (or most days for that matter) is 200K or a quarter of 1% of TIO in circulation.
So while its natural to see, say a 5% decrease in price, you can't ignore this is taking place on literally no volume and off of trade.io exchange. The price is being dictated by bulls**t exchanges like BitForex which is complete hocus pocus.
In order for TIO to get to the BNB levels we need liquidity and participants. We fully expect once we're up and running in full force on our exchange and TIO is limited to that, we'll be in good shape, in our opinion.
Please note this is not a recommendation to buy or sell TIO, but rather pointing out some factual information.
You wouldn't be able to sell 25K without cracking the price. In order for TIO to get to the BNB levels you need liquidity and participants. We fully expect once we're up and running in full force on our exchange and TIO is limited to that, we'll be in good shape.
Q : Exchange
A : It's not perfect, far from it. However, to say its not light years better than the beta which didn't even have working market orders at the time, and a fraction of features that are out now is simply inaccurate. I'll be happy to post what the demo beta looked like at launch. Obviously this isn't something to be proud of, but again, I do want to stick up for our devs just a little bit here as I know they are busting their butts.
With that said, any remaining mods are being tended to around the clock and I'm personally updating everyone every 12 hours. For example, there were issues with saving presets, data issues, etc. have been rectified. Next on the list is BCH & USDT. Once bugs are fixed, then enhancements come that we've been tracking and logging.
Dev's are tidying up any residual issues from launch, like BCH & USDT. Dev's btw, are more than 14 (as I saw that number somewhere), we now have over 30 devs around the globe. So rest assured there is not 1 dev in the basement making Pinnochio 🙂
On the to immediate do list after the tidying:
  1. Adding additional users, of course
  2. Adding the airdrop tokens
  3. Adding additional tokens & blockchains
So those 3 items are on the the "get it done" list. Also will be working on margin trading as well which is going to be a key initiative (i.e. our friends at Bitmex.)
Q : Why do we see trades on inactive assets ?
A : We have algos firing in tiny trades to create charts for now. Until there is adequate flow, this is necessary to create clean looking charts.
Q : So LP is technically already sort of functioning then?
A : Sort of, its a bit more complicated than that.
Q : When traded on only one exchange same prob. How can we say it s not being manipulated by the exchange itself
Non tionauts might think that way..
A : Manipulate usually conotates a negative, not sure why having TIO only on trade.io would lead to a negative.
Q : Won't ppl added in 2 batch miss LP start?]
Tied in to this. Some people will surely complain about the 30 day no fee incentive. Claiming (and rightly so) they did not avail themselves of it since they were restricted
A : We're def not committed to 30 days only, as you rightly said, it won't be fair, if we only open it up to say 5K people in the first 30 days.
Q : when will there be bots placing and filling order book
A : Once there is a larger number of users on the platform.
Q : Set deadlines, dates for things to get done
A : I will refrain from setting deadlines, as we haven't exactly been the greatest at meeting deadlines.
Q : Adding additional users
A : For adding additional users, its going to be a shoot first ask questions later tactic. So as we add, emails will go out, and we will alert the community. Its in everyones best interest that we allow the 20k+ on the waiting list and open it up to the masses ASAP though for 101 reasons. We're all on the same page there gang.
Q : Will you have a public list on which features are being worked on? (Not deadlines, just a list for poeple to know what to expect next)
A : I will have them in my twice daily updates (Paul).
Q : LP
A : As I have said earlier this week, we have been working closely with regulators to modify the LP which will maximize it's utility AND benefit to TIO hodlers. The current structure was based on the regulatory guidelines during our ICO and is expected to change in the very near future. (Roy)
We have been working with regulators and jurisdictions with the goal of making the LP TIO only. As alluded to before, things are going well and if they continue this is the direction of the LP.
Q : will there be a way to calculate taxes, or is it still soon to have an answer to that?
A : Taxes are the responsibility of the LP participant. there are dozens of jurisdictions which have their own unique tax laws and requirements which would be an incredible undertaking to address for all our users. We have been approached with a few technology providers who are working with accounting firms to address this very issue. should we discover a convenient solution for our clients then of course we integrate a solution that is conveinent for all our clients to calculate/estimate their tax liabilities for their respective juridictions.
Q : Can you give us estimated revenues on ICO consulting business?
A : It is important to understand the ICO Consulting pricing model and revenue structure for this. Our consulting services require a small upfront engagement fee to onboard the client. The majority of the revenue is not collected or recognized until the ICO client has completed their ICO as the pricing model is performanced based much of the time on amount of funds raised and tokens issued. which means, revenue from consulting engagement is delayed 3-4 months until the ICO has ended for that consulting client.
Q : Provided tiers remain as is, the price of TIO will most probably plateu at some point (I imagine pretty quickly). What's the plan with the tiers? Will these be dynamic at some point?
A : Tiers will change as price of TIO changes, also with regards to TIO price plateauing, pls keep in mind that while the LP is one major utilization of TIO, there are others to keep TIO in demand. The LP will not be the sole dictator of price/demand of TIO.
Q : With higher and higher TIO price the likelyhood is that less and less people will be interested to buy as "the train would have left the station" Imagine when TIO is $1, you'd need 2,500$ for every tier. Imagine if it reaches 10$
A : Again, the tier structure will remain "flexible" as to allow for the most participants possible while at the same type not diluting. The original plan to adjust the tier is based on the price and volume of TIO. We are contiuously monitoring this to make the LP fair and benficial to our community.
Q : In my opinion, the model of having the LP with multiple currencies (not only TIO) is a much better one, as participants will have multiple diversified assets portofolio
A : It's subjective really. I believe TIO only LP will boost the token much better. That's what we believe as well. Having someone contribute 1K BTC and getting profits from the LP doesn't help TIO at all, it only helps their pockets.
Q : when do new version of calculator appear?
A : Once the terms of service have been finalized and the official announcemnet has been made.
Q : Will the daily profits automatically be included in the next (successive) days' calculations? Or will they be deposited in a separate wallet outside the LP
A : Profit from today will be put in your wallet pro rata tomorrow, and so on.
Q: please tell what will happen to leftover (for the person having teir lvl less than 100)
A: trade.io keeps it. If the participants don't maximize their LP contribtutions that is their discretion. we are not forcing the min teir structure to be 25K as this would not be fair. We structured the LP to be fair for the masses and understand that not everyone can maximize their contribution. However, if LP participants do not max out their teir level we are a for profit company and any leftovers will help us spearhead additional initives and partnerships to increase the utility of TIO and benefit the community. There are direct and indirect benefits of the LP here.
Q: Will the LP be available before the end of September?
A: I refuse to provide a deadline...don't make me....:) We stink at hitting deadlines, its a tough biz in tech. We're busting our butts though to get the LP up and running.
Q : well, just imagined that dynamic model and it seems that in that model rich become richer and poor get poorer. Am i wrong?
A : With the flexibility for us to change the tiers we can control this better so that doesn't happen. The last thing we want is to go against our core values and placate to the whales. That's not why we created the LP. the LP was created to redistribute wealth in an easy an accessible way to the masses. What benefit does it give our community if only the rich become richer?
Q : will there be an auto-reinvest option?
A : Yes, 100%, like a money market sweep type mechanism.
Q : On window for LP withdrawal
A : You can opt out at any time, and it will be automatically removed at the next "roll over" similar to if you have traded FX with swaps.
Q : The auto-reinvest will probably hit the tier limit right (unless you're in the top tier which is currently limitless). What happens then?
A : You'll be automatically bumped to the next tier
Q : will top tier be capped on revenues shared on the start, or this will be a possibility for the future?
A : Top tier is capped in terms of % but not in terms of quantity, is that what you're asking? There has always been a cap to the %....its never been open ended. we are potentially paying out 55% of the LP, in actuality, not 50
Q : but we talked earlier that there will be an option to re-invest.. now given that the payouts will be done in other crypto.. will that option be able to convert let's say BTC into TIo and add to the LP automatically ?? if that's the case, then we''ll automatically move to the next tier.. set and forget
A : We can have a bot that auto buys TIO, we can add that later to reinvest. A later feature would be the concept of "dust" to do this reinvestment. .
Q : Will the daily profits automatically be included in the next (successive) days' calculations? Or will they be deposited in a separate wallet IP plan using dust later?
A : They would need to be reinvested to move up. initially, this would have to be a bit manual, but we are planning a DRIP plan using dust later.
Q : Non-TIO assets and caps
A : For non TIO, there needs to be caps so people dont do 2500 TIO and US$1 million. When and if we allow non-TIO in LP. AND non-TIO will not have same multipliers, but as an enhancement. We are not trying to fuck you or game you in any way. Over time, we want to enable people to make money loaning BTC, ETH, USD, etc so other can go short. Returns on that will not be like TIO. We launch with TIO only, later we present the plan for other assets. On we have something we all like, we can move ahead.
Q : LP top tier caps
A : There will be a cap on top tier as well, above where our current largest outside investors are.
Q : so Jim.. shifting gears a bit here, can you talk to us about the regulatory side of things.. where do we stand? what're the future plans with regulators? will TIO be listed as a utility token or a security? anything you can share with us in terms of regluations would be great.. I know there's a lot of confusion with the SEC right now, but any thoughts or undergoing discussions?
A : All cryptos have different classifications in different jurisdictions. We are in Switzerland, where we are a utility. US might treat us diff, as they see everything as a security. Malta has another view. This applies to ALL cryptos, not just TIO, every jurisdiction is different. To say any token is a security or utility is not accurate. Dealing with customers for exchanges is a different regulatory issue.
On the exchange regulatory side, we are working on multiple jurisdictions. HK, US, Malta, etc. In Malta, we have co setup already. Just waiting for app process to open.
Q : Is there any chance that leverage trading will be added to the exchange?
A : yes, on the priority list.
Q : Once we lock our TIOs to the LP, adn after a few months we want to remove them (loss or profit does not matter) do we get back teh same ammount of TIOs even if the price of TIO increases?
Lest say I put 25,000 TIO, with TIO price of $1, adn wehn I decide to take them off the price of TIO is 2$, do I still take 25,000 TIO back or 12,500 TIO ?
A : Yes #TIO in = #TIO out unless the LP has a massive loss that wipes out our blanace sheet and TIO reserve which stands in front of you.
Conclusion : We are going back to whipping the slaves in the salt mines.
submitted by Scarlet_TIO to u/Scarlet_TIO [link] [comments]

Fast Cash Biz Review So Is Fast Cash Biz SCAM Or LEGIT? The Truth About FastCash.Biz System By Madison Clark & David Graham Reviews-Best Binary Option Trading Software?

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Millionaire Trader Biz Reviews : Is Millionaire Trader Biz APP System BINARY Software Work Or Scam Or Real?

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[Table] IAmA: I make $5,000+ per month with Google's Adsense program - AMAA

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Date: 2012-04-16
Link to submission (Has self-text)
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Questions Answers
I have $500, I'm also a web developer with all the skills required to do this. I still don't see how you can make money off them? Would the plan be to buy up 1 to start, customise it maybe give it a refresh, fiddle with the SEO then leave it for a month and try to see returns of the $500? Or would it be considerably less? Would the ROI be $500 over 3 months? Whats your usual ROI? For the sites I sell on Flippa (quality, aged, established traffic/earnings) You can expect to buy the site for 30x monthly earnings.
How Do you buy a website that has already got an owner? Is there a website market? Do you approach them? You can email them and offer to buy there website.
Thanks for the fast reply, so the ROI is fairly low... I don't see how you can make money this way without somehow getting 30x more traffic to offset the bad earnings. What's the usual strategy when you buy one of these things? Tweak the ad placement/units, mess around with layouts, tweak SEO.
A 2.5 year return on investment isn't bad at all.
I am not sure why you got downvoted, but I think this will be interesting! If I were to get into something like this, how would I start? Thanks If you have $500-$1000 to jump in with, I'd suggest buying some site so that you throw yourself into the deep end. Start looking through sites at Flippa.com. Since they are established websites for sale, they will be disclosing EVERYTHING. Earnings, traffic, how they get the traffic, etc. These are great examples to get you in the mindset of a web entrepreneur.
I've visited Flippa many times, most of the sites that claim to be making money with the classic "I'm focusing on other projects which is why I want to sell" seem like complete BS to me. Aren't the only people making money the guys selling the sites? Not true at all. I actually sold off my inventory of 40+ sites because I'm literally too busy with other projects. The people who bought my websites are now enjoying the cash-flow that I used to have.
Also, there's pretty much no such thing as a "Set/Forget" website that makes you money. Everything needs some level of maintenance, and every site has the potential to stop making money overnight if google changes it's logarithm.
I'm not very familiar with all of this but it does look interesting. Can you break down what exactly it is you're doing? How are you earning money from this? So you buy up websites, place ads on the sites, and get money from the traffic? Am I getting this right? Spot on!
I looked briefly at one of your links and you said that you work around 40-50 hours a week. My hours fluctuate considerably. Some weeks are 10, some weeks are 50.
Is this something I could do on my spare time if I just wanted a little supplemental income? Can I just do 1-3 websites and monitor them occasionally? Is it a situation where unless you spend a lot of time and money on it, you won't see results? I started my business part time while I was a full-time student with another part-time job. You can easily start up with 10 hours a week. Just depends on how big you want to go with it.
Will you be my dad? I'm probably the same age as you but I think we can make it work. That depends. How hot is your mom? And do I get to have sex with her?
Another internet marketer here - congrats on your success bro. :) I never mess around with search or anything SEO related because I feel like it's too unreliable to rely on Google's (constantly changing) SEO algorithm. Just last month, thousands of people lost their entire income through that BMR debacle. Do you think you'll be able to keep up your income forever? SEO can be unreliable if you are trying to cheat the system. I pretty much follow Google's golden rule of creating quality content for the user, and they have had my back so far with every update.
Can I have $200? What are you going to do to earn it?
Do you have a background in graphic/web design? What niches did you find that pay the best and what the worst? How much traffic do you get a month? How do you market the site and generate traffic? SEO, social media, PPC, etc? Approximately how many hours do you put into the site a week and how long has the site been around? Do you need any additional help? If so would you be open to a possible partnership? No, I actually studied Construction Management in college. - Best paying is like forex, mortgages, foreclosures, mesothilioma (sp?) etc. Worst are education, kids stuff, etc. But it doesn't matter what the niche is, you can still make money in any. And the higher-paying niches have MUCH more competition. - I get over a million visits a month. - SEO, Social Media, no PPC. The sites I buy, I do no marketing since they are already getting traffic. - My main site has been around 6 years. I probably put 10-30 hours a week into it. - Not interested in partnerships. I've got a few employees but don't need anymore.
I own loser.com ...there must be a way to monitize that. Any thoughts? Probably sell it. I'm sure someone will pay a small fortune for it..
I make around $450-$500 a month off two sports forums. Forums are better to get more user generated content. It's usually lower quality, but you get it for free. Forums are also typically harder to monetize because forum browsers know not to click on the adsense units.
Are forums or blogs better for adsense earning? Should I concentrate on bringing in more posters to the forum, or more readers to the blog? Blogs can be tough because you have to do ALL the writing, however you can have higher quality content and probably more clicks since blog readers aren't quite as internet savvy as the interactive forum users.
Fuck dude, did I read that right? One hundred thousand pages of unique content? How much content constitutes a page, on average? Are we talking several hundred word articles? I can hardly think of any sites that approach that size, except social networking sites or forums. Did you create fmylife.com or something? Reddit probably has several million pages of content. Many of the pages are forum threads. Not all the highest quality content.
If I were to buy a site from flippa, for example one of yours (to make things easy), what happens after I 'win' the bid? I get the domainname, the site, the hosting? Do I just need to replace your adsense-ID (and/or others) with mine, or do I have to place them manually? Exactly. You can just replace the adsense ID with yours. You'll have to get your own hosting account, but that is relatively easy. I don't currently have any sites for sale though.
Be sure to look through Flippa for a while to get a feel for what is out there. There's a lot of junk, so it might take a while to find a diamond in the rough.
I'm kinda hesitant about buying one in the first place, I kinda read these horror stories about G banning these sites after the transfer was complete. Just make sure you aren't buying some crappy site. Look for history of traffic/earnings.
How can you tell if they post legit traffic and earnings information? They could pad their stats a lot or a little, or the info could be legit -- but inflated because the owner buys traffic through Adwords, etc. You can ask for access to their Google Analytics account. You can't fake that.
Is that what you usually do when buying a site? Can you describe your due diligence when purchasing? I researched site flipping, domaining, affiliate marketing etc etc ad nauseum a few years ago, but I didn't want to just throw my money away. There's a lot of devil in the details. Also, use SEMRush.com, Quantcast.com, Compete.com, Alexa.com to verify that their site actually gets traffic.
Would you mind to give detailed practical tips to earn a 10th of what you earn? I understand the whole process might be complex, but I am sure there are certain tricks or considerations you could share. Finding a nice niche is the main thing as it appear... What cms do you use? -Where do you host your websites? vps, dedicated server? -Do you consider it "easy" to make a couple hundred a month? I am a computer science student, and I feel comfortable with administering servers, cms and programming. I've been thinking for a long time to start some useful website that could bring me some earnings, and I have a couple of ideas. But when I search for something like what I want to create, it seems everything is already invented, and I am late. One of my "brightest" idea, was to copy the concept of some rather simple foreign website which I liked and create the "spanish" version. What kind of website do you recommend? (forum, social website, a kind of wiki) I prefer Wordpress for sites where I'm writing the content. - You can use any host. If you aren't a high traffic site, then anything will do. - It really depends how you spend your time. - Forums are easy to set up, and once you have a userbase established, they typically grow over time. You don't have to do all the content for forums as well.
People actually click the advertisements on websites? What the hell..... Seriously! Just watch some internet newb surf the net. Literally ask them to google something, and stand behind them silently as they try to figure it out.
What's the advantage to doing this rather than say, buying domains that are typos of other major sites and putting a shit load of ads on them? You aren't really creating any value in the internet by doing that.
My Adsense account has been disabled due to "false clicks" or however they put it. I never clicked on ads myself, and asked for proof, but they have never responded nor have they ever reinstated my account. Have you ever had this issue, and if so, how did you solve it? Create a corporation, get an EIN and use that to sign up again. Or sign up as a friend/relative.
Where do you find outsourcers to write content for your lessor properties? Do you do any SEO at all to your sites or just hope for the best by having great content? Are you a BHW regular at all? I find contractors through ODesk. Some are crap, but sometimes you do find a diamond in the rough. I also don't do much content creation at all.
I do basic SEO things, but other than that I hope for the best with great content.
Don't know what BHW is.
How do you feel about flash game portals? I've owned one for a few years, only spent 2 days making it, and haven't advertised it since. It's only making $5-10 a month, but I've been thinking about upgrading it lately and advertising again. Worth it? Tips? Don't have much experience, but I know that flash games portals typically have low-quality traffic. Unless you are seeing huge traffic numbers, the traffic probably isn't worth a terrible amount.
Did you buy any cool "toys" with your earnings? 2000 BMW M5.
And the rest just sex toys.
I know the best way of getting into it is to jump head first, but what all is required for the maintenance? I'm sorry i'm totally ignorant to how this works but is it programming (more so what language i think it would be html?)? Or do you just alter the info of the website. I've answered this several other places. I'll probably add an FAQ to the body of the post.
Do people ever buy specialty retail sites on Flippa? Or would they only be interested on autonomous ones (drop shipping, etc)? What is the value rate on such sites? All types of sites are sold on flippa. No idea what the value rate is for those.
Can a brotha get a loan? Try prosper.com or lendingclub.com if you are seriously interested in getting a hard money personal loan.
Did you just make this to piss off $500 a month guy? Hahaha, yes, that is what inspired me to do this today. Although I'm not making it up.
How to best estimate what to pay for a website? I found some abandoned websites that I would like to buy, both without analytics and without adsense, but with great content. How to decide what to offer the current owner? Use Alexa.com, SEMRush.com, compete.com, quantcast.com, etc. to estimate traffic then go from there.
So do you just sit at home and make a shit ton of money? please teach me? It is my full time job. Read this thread - there's a lot of info I and others have been sharing.
What is adsense? Google "Adsense"
I apologize if someone has asked this already, but how many unique visitors do you get a month on your main site? Over a million.
I'm going to manage an affiliate program soon. Do you know of any good books with email templates? I'm looking for ideas for contacting potential affiliates. Any information on managing affiliates would be great. I'm in NV also. I don't read any books. Too short of an attention span. When you contact potential affiliates, make sure that you are offering them value and have a customized email. I get emails for affiliate programs all the time and just ignore them because they are either recycled letters or don't fit my site at all.
NV rocks for business!
I've been interested in creating a site about something I am interested in. The only problem is that since I am interested in it, I've found many online resources that pretty much suffice. Is it worth making an online resource (for say, a hobby/sport) when there might already be some decent but not prevalent info out there? Definitely, especially if you can do it better than the other sites. There are 10 google positions on the first page, so even if you have competition, you can still nudge your way in. Also, there are billions of search terms that people use to find different stuff...
Hopefully I didn't get here too late. I could put about $3000 towards a site. How much traffic do you think an average $3000 site would generate and how much would you expect to make monthly doing the things you've suggested in this thread? If you bought a quality site for $3000, you could probably be looking at a starting cash flow of ~$100 a month. You could probably increase it, but there are too many variables so it really depends on what you buy.
What about if you made a domain that was the same as another other than the extension? Ie. "startknitting.com" exists but sucks balls and is out of date. Would "startknitting.org/net" still be a good idea? You'd probably run into some legality issues there. I'd start with a different name and then try to blow them out of the water. Will take time though.
All right, I'll bite. I'm a graphic/web designer with far more coding experience than I'd like, and in that same vein I've ended up spending a good chunk of my time on SEO/staring at traffic graphics. How easy would it be for me to buy a site, flip it, and start earning money? Given that you already have the skills, pretty good. My strategy was never to buy/flip. It was always to buy/hold, but eventually I decided to change that strategy to just holding onto one site.
Is there any particular industry I should be looking at for this venture? Or is it just "pick whichever site looks promising?" This wouldn't be something I'd want to focus on full-time, but I'm a freelance designer so I would be able to allot hours to work on it between projects as needed. What does typical maintenance work look like for you? Pick something that looks promising, and also something that interests you at least somewhat.
What do you have to learn in order to start out doing this. Like, which books, websites should one read/study? I just jumped in head first. Learned along the way.
I never read books. Just figure stuff out as you go along - Googling things works best.
Could you explain what affiliate links are? For example, a link to a product on amazon with my Affiliate ID on it. If you click it, and then buy that product, I get a commission.
Could you please draw and post an image of how you have your google ads placed around / inside the content. Also, what link color schemes do you find works best? Color schemes that match the site are best. I typically put my adsense units in the top left, above or in the middle of the content.
I have an established (10 years) useful user-generated content site that gets ok traffic (1500 uniques a day) but only generates 800-1000 a month between AdSense and TextLinkAds. I've had no luck whatsoever with Affiliate programs, very few clicks and no sales at all, with thousands of views. Any advice to increase my earnings? Take a look at the FAQ. I don't give personalized advice. I've already answered questions like this all throughout the thread.
Are you, by chance, a local mom? Hahaha, nope. I see those scammy biz opp ads all the time too. Freaking gives making money on the internet a bad name.
Can you give an estimated "$/pageview" on some of the sites you've had ? :) All over the board. Sometimes a fraction of a cent, sometimes 10 cents.
Do you need to live in NV to have an S-Corp in NV? You should be a resident or else it might look suspicious.
Wait, isn't it against the Adsense TOS to say how much you've made? Already answered this a dozen times.
Do you actually make/work on/improve sites you own (other than your blog) to make money or just buy sites that are already making money? Yes, I work on my own site.
Spare change? Can you do a dance for me?
How do you actually make money though? Sorry i just wasn't sure by what you wrote on your blog/ Google "Adsense"
Are you a single mom that earns $5,000 a day from Google? Stay at home mom.
So every once in a while someone comes along and says "hurr durr guys I make X thousand dollars / month off ads". "Invest Y thousand dollars and get 50% return within months!" How full of shit is this on a scale of bullshit to horseshit? I don't see where I said anything about investing...
I didn't say you did. I'm not sure I understand what you are asking then.
Other than buying a site, are there other significant costs involved in getting started right away? Time!
How do you get a website to the top of the google results? SEO.
Can I get my friend to write me a script or code for this? Not sure if troll Or just extremely lazy.
Would I be able to sell my site, DominateDominion.com for anything? Getting tired of the game. It has a sponsorship from the creators of the game for weekly tournament prizes if that increases the value. Check the FAQ. I don't offer personalized advice. You could try listing it on Flippa.
Alright, well are the sites that claim to value it accurate at all? Hit or miss. Sometimes they get lucky and happen to be correct, but otherwise are pretty outlandish.
These are almost as bad as the "what you need, when you need it" spam sites. Thanks for polluting the Internet with your shitty web sites. That is not at all what I do. I actually run a very helpful online community. My success is partly attributed to the fact that my site is extremely helpful for people.
You may be able to fool some people with that description, but it's a load of crap. These sites are, in your own words, "hands-off" and "auto-pilot". I'm willing to bet the content of most of those sites have changed very little, if at all, over the years. How does that make it low content?
Have you ever thought of of shoring yourself and your employees to increase profit, there is some great talent out there in parts of the world where the average wage is significantly lower than the US. I've used some overseas contractors with limited success. I do business primarily in the US, so going overseas would just complicate things in terms of taxes.
He got downvoted because he's a parasite. It is SEO at its basest, simply there to make ad revenue. Microsites provide nothing of value. I don't have any microsites. Thanks though.
Um, you might want to watch out. It's against the TOS to post your adsense earnings, and with those exact figures it's fairly easy for them to trace it back to you.. Last thing you'd want is your adsense account blocked because of this :) Do some more research. You can't post more details like the click-through rates, etc. It is perfectly fine to share your total earning dollar amounts.
As a 14 year old, AdSense is also my main source of income. I'm pretty sure they don't want us to disclose how much we make, but it's great that someone my age can make money on the internet. I get it through YouTube, personally, but it still pays with AdSense. Nice man! Its great to see kids doing something productive! Don't let it get to your head though. Stay in school. Enjoy your young age.
I don't mean to be a party pooper, but 3 friends of mine were making $20-30k/mo on adsense per month, one day Google changed their rules and they are now ruined. Just be prepared, don't count on this success for life, and save money. Thanks, but Adsense only accounts for about 20% of my income. I'm also not doing anything sketchy or against the rules, so I'm not too worried about it.
Looks good man. I was making $2k a month up until 2 months ago when my adsense got banned. Some guys who I had a bad business deal with decided to sit there for hours and click my ads over and over. This turned into google thinking that I was cheating the system and banning me :( Sucks! Try signing up again under a different EIN.
How do you build sites with user generated content. Perhaps give us an example, real or made up. The tools you liked are good for proving and tweaking, but making something that generates its own content seems difficult, and key to the process. Reddit.com....
I'm currently making ~$400 in a small niche where I have the #1 position. Any advice on scaling (general advice) in an attempt to get rich like a playyaaaaaaaaa. Rank #1 for more keywords! Go broader.
Congrats srnc! I'm very pleased for you. I wish I was pulling in that kind of revenue. I have a site that does about $10 a day with a .23 click rate. If I could get that up to 5% I'd (theoretically) be doing $200 a day. But I've tried everything and it's just not an Adsense type of site I guess.. The only advice I have is to move your adsense unit around, try different sizes and different colors.
Man, I have tried everything, including compete site redesign. This is a site I developed myself, so changing look and feel isn't easy.... I just don't think it's an Adsense site.... Might not be. Try some CPA offers or affiliate promotions?
I think you broke Google's Terms of Service by telling us all this. Nope. Look more closely. You can't share some of the finer details... clicks, impressions, CTR, CPM, etc.
In before the next dot-com bubble bursts. Hurry! Why do you think I'm selling everything?
there was spam, now there is googleadsense, and a labyrinthine expanse of well-indexed garbage websites that clutter the google results. Using google now is like wading through a septic tank filled with liquid waste and floating shit so that parasites like 'srnc' can have their little payday. Not at all true. My main site is an authority site because it has been providing quality content to visitors for years.
'Quality content' produced by others, for you to exploit and parasitize. Someone is a little jealous!
Is reddit exploiting and parasitizing the content you create for them?
Sorry mate, you've already described your modus operandi in how you acquire these websites and set them up as cashcows/google clutter. There is no real contribution that you make, or any added value to be found in your net activities. You're basically the equivalent of a spam-sheister. Again, jealousy/ignorance coming through. You have no idea what I do and are just upset that I make more than you do.
Money for nothin' and chicks for free. False on both counts.
Nice try, google ad. = . = I can't imagine that Google is trying to spam Reddit...
I make you zero money by blocking ads. Ask me how! Oh fuck you, just use adblock plus. Thanks. Glad that not many people have that. However my affiliate links which make the bulk of my money are never blocked by your addon! Muhuhahahaha.
Commenting to come back later cause im stuck at work, and want to learn how to make 5 grand a month doing this shit. Cool. Be sure to read through this thread. Already answered a LOT of questions.
Keep working at it. Join us at the 4-5 figure daily profit club. It's pretty damn nice. Think more affiliate related stuff for expansion. Thanks man! I want to hit 1M/year soon.
Could you go into more detail concerning the SEO work. This seems like the most important and time consuming aspect of making a website get the traffic it needs. I just do basic SEO stuff with my main site. Keywords in the title, fresh content linked to from the home page, etc.
Last updated: 2012-04-20 22:59 UTC
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